Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
